Asteroid 2024 YR4: Planetary Surveillance and the Future of Earth Defense

Article written by Olga Valentin Prado

Introduction

Science, Truth, and Global Responsibility

In December 2024, the ATLAS system in Chile made a significant discovery: a new near-Earth object, the asteroid 2024 YR4. Classified as an Apollo-type asteroid, this rocky body has captured the attention of scientists worldwide, as it is projected to make a close approach to Earth on December 22, 2032.

Under the direction of NASA, planetary defense protocols were activated. Although current calculations indicate that the risk of impact is virtually nonexistent (approximately 0.0039%), the study of this asteroid represents a meaningful advancement in modern science: humanity not only observes the cosmos, but also assumes responsibility for safeguarding our planet from potential celestial threats.

What Is Asteroid 2024 YR4?

Type: Apollo asteroid (crosses Earth’s orbit).

Discovery: December 27, 2024, by the ATLAS system in Chile.

Estimated size: Between 40 and 90 meters in diameter.

Initial projected event: Close approach on December 22, 2032.

Apollo-type asteroids are continuously monitored because their orbits intersect Earth’s orbital path.

Actual Probability of Impact

Early estimates showed fluctuations, at one point temporarily exceeding 1% during the initial observational phase (a normal occurrence when limited data are available).

With additional observations and orbital refinement:

Current probability: ≈ 0.0039%

Classification: Extremely low risk

Scientific conclusion: It does not represent a global threat.

This case illustrates the increasing precision of modern orbital modeling.

What Would Happen If an Impact Occurred?

Physical models suggest that an object between 40 and 90 meters in diameter would likely:

Disintegrate in the atmosphere, producing an airburst similar to the 2013 Chelyabinsk event.

Release energy equivalent to several conventional explosives, depending on its actual size.

Cause potential effects such as shockwaves, broken windows, and localized damage if the airburst occurred over a populated area. An ocean impact would have a low probability of generating a significant tsunami.

It would not constitute a global extinction-level event.

Scientific Benefits

Interestingly, the study of 2024 YR4 offers substantial benefits:

Improvement of planetary defense systems through the development of more precise predictive algorithms.

Technological advancements, including enhanced telescopes, infrared sensors, and orbital software.

Promotion of international cooperation, with space agencies sharing real-time data.

Strengthening of scientific education and culture, increasing global awareness of real (not fictional) cosmic risks.

Preparation for future threats through simulations that could potentially save millions of lives.

Challenges and Limitations

Media sensationalism, as small probabilities can generate disproportionate fear.

High costs, since planetary surveillance requires sustained investment.

Initial uncertainty, as early projections may be unstable.

Geopolitical considerations, as future deflection technologies could raise debates regarding strategic use.

Research Proposal by Olga Valentin Prado

As an innovative proposal:

A global orbital artificial intelligence network, incorporating quantum AI capable of modeling millions of trajectories within seconds.

Passive interceptor satellites, strategically positioned micro-probes ready to make minimal orbital adjustments if necessary.

Enhanced gravitational deflection technology, employing “gravitational tractors” to alter trajectories without the use of explosives.

A lunar monitoring base, envisioning permanent observatories on the Moon, free from atmospheric interference.

What Would Happen If We Were Not Vigilant?

If humanity chose to ignore near-Earth objects, we could face unexpected and devastating localized impacts, regional infrastructure collapse, temporary economic crises, and heightened social panic.

However, we now live in a different era: for the first time in history, we possess the capability to anticipate such events.

Conclusion

The case of asteroid 2024 YR4 is not a story of fear, but a testament to scientific maturity. Active surveillance demonstrates that we have reached a level at which we can:

Detect cosmic threats,

Calculate risks with mathematical precision, and

Design planetary defense strategies.

The true achievement lies not merely in avoiding an improbable impact, but in proving that we are prepared to confront a possible one.

Science does not predict the end of the world; science works to prevent it.

Written by:

Olga Valentin Prado